
As a little election-season fun, see if you can guess what the Electoral College result will be.
Details
✔ Start Date = Today
✔ End Date = Friday October 14th at end of day
✔ Winner = Whoever is closest to the actual electoral vote is the winner.
✔ Open to = The contest is open to all registered SI users, but the Editors, Moderators, etc. are not eligible for the prize (only bragging rights).
✔ Prize = $25.00 Amazon Gift card for electoral college. Example: Clinton 290 to Trump 247. Use the helpful 270toWin to model.
✔ Tie-breakers and Bonus prizes:
- Pick who will win the Senate. Example: Republicans 52 to Democrats 48. Extra $2.00 added to the winner if correct party guessed.
- Pick who will win the House. Example: Republicans 234 to Democrats 201. Extra $2.00 added to the winner if correct party guessed.
- Pick who will win the House seat of your own Congressional district for an extra $1.
✔ Winner potential prize up to $30.
✔ Caveat: Contest must have at least 10 eligible submissions. SI moderator or admin posts will not be counted as an eligible submission.
✔ Multiple submissions permitted, but only your latest revision will be counted.
✔ No electioneering on the contest thread!
✔ Canadians may submit entries (the Don Johnson rule)
Jim Peet bio 2016
Jim is a retired pastor and a retired IT professional. He volunteers at Central Seminary.
There are 39 Comments
my entry
Here is my entry:
Clinton 347
Trump 191
Senate: 50-50 tie, but vice-president Kaine gives control to Democrats.
House: Republicans 230 / Democrats 205
House district pick: VA_02: Scott Taylor.
Massive Clinton win
Note: I am ineligible for the prize
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
Not happy either way...
Clinton 326
Trump 212
Senate 51 Republican - 49 Democrat - Including the Independents that vote with the Dems (Bernie and Angus)
House 237 R - 198 D
House Pick - ME02 - Bruce Poliquin
Sounds like gambling to me!
I'm going to hold out hope that Mrs. Clinton gets federal housing in Waseca (women's prison) instead of Washington DC.
Trump 280, Clinton 255
Senate 52 GOP/48 Democrat/independent
House 240R-195D
MN1-Tim Walz (DFL-CCCP) retains seat
Aspiring to be a stick in the mud.
Helpful article
Wargaming the Electoral College
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
On the battle to keep the Senate
Assume for a minute that Hillary Clinton will win the Presidency: Democrats will have the same power that they have now in that eventuality. But what happens if they also capture the Senate?
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
Electoral College
Since I have an undergrad degree in Political Science, this is interesting to me. I'll post some numbers in early October.
Remember that in the last 6 Presidential elections, Democrats have won the same 18 states and the Dist. of Columbia consistently, giving the Democratic nominee 242 electoral votes, needing only 28 more to win. Republicans have a lot of ground work to do, while Democrats have an easier path to win. Anything can happen in politics. The Libertarian Party may be a wild card this time, although I don't see the Libertarian ticket winning any states. But it would be interesting to see the election placed into the House (President) and Senate (Vice-President).
Wally Morris
Charity Baptist Church
Huntington, IN
amomentofcharity.blogspot.com
Come back because we need at least 7 more
Come back because we need at least 7 more to be official
Only your last entry counts!
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
You know who you are!
Hillary:
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
redo
I might have to redo my picks toward the end, especially if Hillary keeps fainting like she did today and having coughing fits.
Hillary Clinton and her “Basket of Deplorables”
http://danburrell.com/?p=1363
Excerpt:
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
A Handy Guide for Hillary Clinton's Basket of Deplorables
A Handy Explanatory Guide for Hillary Clinton's Basket of Deplorables:
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
Salon: Dems have no chance of taking back the House
The real New York Times scandal: Ignoring why Democrats can’t win the House
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
Citigroup: "A 35 percent probability for a Trump victory"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-people-arent-taking-possibility-12342...
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
Updates
GOP gains ground on Dems in voter registration in key states
Trump Has 5-Point Lead in Bloomberg Poll of Battleground Ohio
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
unlikely that Democrats will win back control of the House
Worried About Trump, GOP Donors Back Paul Ryan and His Congressional ‘Firewall’
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
Battle royal for the U.S. Senate
The Republican Senate Isn’t a Lost Cause
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
Nate Silver (528)
Nate Silver today says 63% chance of Clinton win!
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Worth following on Twitter
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
LA Times tracking poll has Trump ahead
Donald Trump's lead widens in USC/L.A. Times tracking poll, which points to likely turnout as key shift
I'm dubious
----
**** WE NEED 7 MORE CONTESTANTS **** VOTE EARLY ... VOTE OFTEN ****
PRIZE = AMAZON GIFT CARD PLUS BRAGGING RIGHTS [YOUR NAME IN LIGHTS] FOR 4 YEARS
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
Trump
I'm astounded that the polls show the race tightening. I don't know what exactly this demonstrates:
Tyler is a pastor in Olympia, WA and works in State government.
My take...
....on why Drumpf is doing so well is that some people are becoming painfully aware of what a crook Hilliary is, and another large group is painfully aware that promises from both parties aren't worth squat.
The first group (of which I'm a part) sees huge risks with Drumpf, but even bigger ones with Hilliary.
The latter group wants, in the words of a friend of mine, someone to come in and blow up the place, figuratively speaking. Really, if you're a tradesman or low skilled worker trying to make a go of it, and you've competing with illegal immigrant labor while DHS doesn't do its legal duty, and you've watched both Democrats and establishment Republicans allow DHS to do this, what is your response going to be? It's going to be something like "we've tried the respectable candidates, and this is what we get. So it's Trump and...<string of expletives>".
Aspiring to be a stick in the mud.
CBS Poll: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton tied across battleground
Poll: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton tied across battleground states
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/20/republicans-ar...
Republicans are now favored to hold the Senate in our inaugural 2016 Senate race ratings
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
Latest tracking polls
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/778653379090325504
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
Professor Allan Lichtman says Trump win!
American University Professor Allan Lichtman has accurately predicted every presidential election for 30 years. This year he predicts Donald Trump will win.
Washington Post full article (paywall)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-heade...
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
A Brief Book To Read
If anyone is interested, an excellent book by Friedrich Hayek, "The Road To Serfdom". Excellent analysis of socialism and totalitarianism by a Libertarian (political, not theological). The book is available in free PDF format: https://mises.org/library/road-serfdom-0
Many of his comments and analyses are particularly relevant to today's political climate in America.
Note: I am not a political Libertarian, but the book is excellent.
Wally Morris
Charity Baptist Church
Huntington, IN
amomentofcharity.blogspot.com
Current E/V
Twitter
Jim's Doctrinal Statement
Wally, The Road to Serfdom is
Wally, The Road to Serfdom is indeed excellent. Thanks for posting the PDF. I love the dedication, "To the socialists of all parties."
Difficult Decision
For the first time since I began voting in Presidential elections (the first was 1976), I am not sure whether to vote for any Presidential candidate. Certainly not voting for Clinton or Stein. The Libertarian candidate, Johnson, is economically appealing but militarily and socially dangerous. The debate last night demonstrated how easily Trump can be manipulated by someone who knows his weaknesses. The Clinton campaign knew what he would say and had "one-liners" ready. He didn't give me the impression of someone suitable for the Presidency. The "lesser of two evils" argument, which many use to justify voting for Trump, does have some merit, but it isn't enough. If our choices were the devil and Hitler, would we vote for Hitler? (I am not comparing Trump to Hitler; just an illustration). Just because our political system gives us some choices doesn't mean that we HAVE to vote for one of those choices. I may decide to vote for Trump, but what I saw last night doesn't motivate me to vote for him just to keep Clinton from being elected. If Trump wants to win, he must do better in the next 2 debates, or Clinton will be the next President.
Wally Morris
Charity Baptist Church
Huntington, IN
amomentofcharity.blogspot.com
Per what Wally notes....
....I don't like Trump, but there is one huge advantage; he does not have 34 Senators who, come Hell or high water, will vote to keep him in the Presidency no matter what he does. Hilliary does, as the disgraceful conduct of Democrats in 1998 and for the past seven years demonstrates.
Aspiring to be a stick in the mud.
Pages