2016 Electoral Vote Contest
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As a little election-season fun, see if you can guess what the Electoral College result will be.
Details
✔ Start Date = Today
✔ End Date = Friday October 14th at end of day
✔ Winner = Whoever is closest to the actual electoral vote is the winner.
✔ Open to = The contest is open to all registered SI users, but the Editors, Moderators, etc. are not eligible for the prize (only bragging rights).
✔ Prize = $25.00 Amazon Gift card for electoral college. Example: Clinton 290 to Trump 247. Use the helpful 270toWin to model.
✔ Tie-breakers and Bonus prizes:
- Pick who will win the Senate. Example: Republicans 52 to Democrats 48. Extra $2.00 added to the winner if correct party guessed.
- Pick who will win the House. Example: Republicans 234 to Democrats 201. Extra $2.00 added to the winner if correct party guessed.
- Pick who will win the House seat of your own Congressional district for an extra $1.
✔ Winner potential prize up to $30.
✔ Caveat: Contest must have at least 10 eligible submissions. SI moderator or admin posts will not be counted as an eligible submission.
✔ Multiple submissions permitted, but only your latest revision will be counted.
✔ No electioneering on the contest thread!
✔ Canadians may submit entries (the Don Johnson rule)
Jim Peet Bio 2016
Jim is a retired pastor and a retired IT professional. He volunteers at Central Seminary.
- 8 views
Worried About Trump, GOP Donors Back Paul Ryan and His Congressional ‘Firewall’
Despite Republican worries, most analysts agree that it’s unlikely that Democrats will win back control of the House, even with a strong showing by Clinton in the presidential contest. University of Virginia political scientist Larry J. Sabato currently forecasts that the Democrats could pick up 10 to 15 seats, but that is far short of the 30 net seats needed.
Still, a loss of 10 to 15 seats would greatly weaken the Republicans’ hand in controlling legislation and spending measures coming out of the House.
Citing multiple GOP sources, CNN reported that the Congressional Leadership Fund was attracting more money this year because Republican donors are far more comfortable with the policy-oriented House speaker than the unpredictable billionaire businessman atop the ticket.
The Republican Senate Isn’t a Lost Cause
Next year’s Senate will include at least 44 Republicans: 30 who are not up for re-election this fall, and 14 who face only nominal challengers. On the other side of the aisle will be at least 45 Democrats: 36 who are not up for re-election, and nine who face only nominal opposition.
That leaves 11 seats up for grabs. Democrats now hold one of these: Nevada. Republicans hold 10: Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. For the GOP this isn’t all friendly territory: Seven of these 11 states went for President Obama twice.
To maintain Senate control, Republicans must win seven of these races. (Or six if Donald Trump is elected, since the vice president holds the tiebreaking vote in a chamber split 50-50.)
Democrats believe that their best chances to knock off Republican incumbents are Illinois and Wisconsin. In the former, Republican Sen. Mark Kirk won his deep-blue state in 2010 by only 1.6 percentage points. Mr. Kirk is running an aggressive campaign, while his opponent, Rep. Tammy Duckworth, has yet to unite Democrats. Still, he has his work cut out for him. In Wisconsin, Republican Sen.Ron Johnson faces an attempted comeback by the man he defeated six years ago, former Sen. Russ Feingold. Mr. Johnson trails, but tenacious campaigning has brought him to within 3 points, according to a Marquette University poll from late August.
In Florida and Indiana, Democrats had hoped to easily claim open Republican seats. The Sunshine State’s Sen. Marco Rubio had opted to run for president instead of re-election. But at the last minute Mr. Rubio re-entered the race. Then his opponent, Democratic Rep.Patrick Murphy, had his claimed resume challenged by a Miami TV news report. Mr. Rubio now leads by 5.4 points.
In Indiana the Democrat, former Sen. Evan Bayh, is up by a similar margin. Mr. Bayh retired six years ago, but Democrats substituted him for their lackluster nominee in July. Voters have since soured after learning that Mr. Bayh hasn’t lived in Indiana since retiring. Republicans picked a superb candidate in Rep. Todd Young, a Naval Academy grad and Marine, who is hitting Mr. Bayh for supporting ObamaCare, the stimulus and cap-and-trade.
As a result, Democrats are moving money into Missouri, North Carolina and Nevada. The Show-Me State’s Republican Sen. Roy Blunt, a leader on veterans’ issues, is up by 4.8 points. He faces Secretary of State Jason Kander, a supporter of ObamaCare and a national energy tax who was given an “F” rating from the NRA.
In North Carolina, Republican Sen. Richard Burr leads by 3.3 points. He faces a former state director of the ACLU, Deborah Ross, who defended flag burning while refusing to aid a veteran seeking to overturn his condo association’s rule against flag displays. She also sought to ban Christmas songs from elementary schools. That might play better in Vermont.
Nate Silver today says 63% chance of Clinton win!
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Worth following on Twitter
I’m astounded that the polls show the race tightening. I don’t know what exactly this demonstrates:
- an indictment against our culture, that the populist approach (i.e. Trumpism) holds so much appeal.
- or, perhaps, an indictment against how terribly unpopular Hillary really is
Tyler is a pastor in Olympia, WA and works in State government.
….on why Drumpf is doing so well is that some people are becoming painfully aware of what a crook Hilliary is, and another large group is painfully aware that promises from both parties aren’t worth squat.
The first group (of which I’m a part) sees huge risks with Drumpf, but even bigger ones with Hilliary.
The latter group wants, in the words of a friend of mine, someone to come in and blow up the place, figuratively speaking. Really, if you’re a tradesman or low skilled worker trying to make a go of it, and you’ve competing with illegal immigrant labor while DHS doesn’t do its legal duty, and you’ve watched both Democrats and establishment Republicans allow DHS to do this, what is your response going to be? It’s going to be something like “we’ve tried the respectable candidates, and this is what we get. So it’s Trump and…
Aspiring to be a stick in the mud.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/20/republicans-a…
Republicans are now favored to hold the Senate in our inaugural 2016 Senate race ratings
As of now, we list just four races as toss-ups: Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Given Republicans currently have an effective 54-46 majority, Democrats would have to win three of those four toss-ups if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency — Vice President Kaine would be the tie-breaker in a 50-50 Senate — and all four if Trump wins the presidency.
If anyone is interested, an excellent book by Friedrich Hayek, “The Road To Serfdom”. Excellent analysis of socialism and totalitarianism by a Libertarian (political, not theological). The book is available in free PDF format: https://mises.org/library/road-serfdom-0
Many of his comments and analyses are particularly relevant to today’s political climate in America.
Note: I am not a political Libertarian, but the book is excellent.
Wally Morris
Huntington, IN
Wally, The Road to Serfdom is indeed excellent. Thanks for posting the PDF. I love the dedication, “To the socialists of all parties.”
For the first time since I began voting in Presidential elections (the first was 1976), I am not sure whether to vote for any Presidential candidate. Certainly not voting for Clinton or Stein. The Libertarian candidate, Johnson, is economically appealing but militarily and socially dangerous. The debate last night demonstrated how easily Trump can be manipulated by someone who knows his weaknesses. The Clinton campaign knew what he would say and had “one-liners” ready. He didn’t give me the impression of someone suitable for the Presidency. The “lesser of two evils” argument, which many use to justify voting for Trump, does have some merit, but it isn’t enough. If our choices were the devil and Hitler, would we vote for Hitler? (I am not comparing Trump to Hitler; just an illustration). Just because our political system gives us some choices doesn’t mean that we HAVE to vote for one of those choices. I may decide to vote for Trump, but what I saw last night doesn’t motivate me to vote for him just to keep Clinton from being elected. If Trump wants to win, he must do better in the next 2 debates, or Clinton will be the next President.
Wally Morris
Huntington, IN
….I don’t like Trump, but there is one huge advantage; he does not have 34 Senators who, come Hell or high water, will vote to keep him in the Presidency no matter what he does. Hilliary does, as the disgraceful conduct of Democrats in 1998 and for the past seven years demonstrates.
Aspiring to be a stick in the mud.
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