Report: the Earth has not warmed in the past 15 years

“The report theorizes that the Earth has not warmed because some of the [planet’s] natural cooling effects overwhelmed the warming effects of burning fossil fuels.” UN Climate Change Report

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Charlie's picture

Both the headline and the article are very misleading. People should look at the actual data source. Here is the condensed report from IPCC:


The relevant section is on page 3: 

In addition to robust multi-decadal warming, global mean surface temperature exhibits
substantial decadal and interannual variability (see Figure SPM.1). Due to natural variability,
trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in
general reflect long-term climate trends. As one example, the rate of warming over the past 15
years (1998–2012; 0.05 [–0.05 to +0.15] °C per decade), which begins with a strong El Niño, is
smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 (1951–2012; 0.12 [0.08 to 0.14] °C per decade). {2.4}


And there is an explanatory footnote:

Trends for 15-year periods starting in 1995, 1996, and 1997 are 0.13 [0.02 to 0.24], 0.14 [0.03 to 0.24],
0.07 [–0.02 to 0.18] °C per decade, respectively.


Basically, many of the 15-year scales DO match the 50-year average, but because temperature is a spiky graph, it is possible to find a few years where the graph levels out, if that's what you're looking for...

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Ed Vasicek's picture

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christian cerna's picture

Let's go beyond the whole question of whether there is or is not global warming. If there really is(which I doubt), then let's begin by taxing/pressuring China, India, and all other third world countries to change first. They are the worst polluters.