"...(W)ithin the next 40 years, the majority of brick-and-mortar universities will probably find partnerships with other kinds of services, or close their doors."

[Susan R] I think it’ll be a lot longer than 30-40 years before the university actually kicks the bucket, if ever. Just like the internet and Kindle aren’t going to do away with books, so online courseware is not going to completely demolish the university. There are always going to be people who want the college experience, just as there are people who drive ‘57 Chevys and use handheld can openers and write with pen and paper.[/QUOTE]
I don’t think the problem is so much that books or universities will disappear any more than the ‘57 Chevy has. However, the number of users of “antiques” being very small will eventually make the support mechanisms either expensive or difficult to maintain, except through other users. E.g., how many ‘57 Chevys do you really see out and about? And that doesn’t talk about for those who do use them, how hard original parts are to get, etc. My uncle restores antique cars, and normally he gets parts at car shows, etc., and he does a lot of even the part restoration himself.

I don’t think Kindle technology is there yet, but it will be. Just look at what the internet has done to newspapers and many periodicals. I think it’s only a matter of time until we can just carry one device with us that keeps up with all our newspaper and magazine subscriptions, as well as maybe even every book we’ve ever bought. There will be some that always want the feel of a real book, but just like antique collectors, they will be a breed apart from the norm, and it will be more about the book itself than about the content. My wife and I (and now my older daughter) have switched entirely from carrying a regular Bible to church to just having several translations available on our iPods and iPhones. I can do searches, cross-references, have a complete Strong’s with me, as well as about 9 or 10 different commentaries, all in a small hand-held device that also handles my email, internet, calendar, to-do list, phone duties, etc. I don’t think I’ll ever go back, and in a few years, even if it’s a generation or two, I think most people will be doing the same, or something even cooler. And now I always have the Bible (not to mention probably about 60 or 70 other books and reference works) with me, not just when I remember to carry one.

When technology does get good enough that a virtual classroom is just like being there for the lectures, tests, labs, etc. (and I think it’s just a matter of time — 30 or 40 years may be plenty) it only makes sense that all the expensive dorm facilities and other facilities needed to house a large number of students will begin to be a largely unnecessary expense for a university, and one that can give way to better and more well-paid instructors, equipment, etc. I think you are right that there will always be a market for a traditional university experience, but it will begin to seem as unusual as single-gender boarding schools (which have never gone away completely) seem to us today.

You may be right about 30 or 40 years being aggressive, but I think such a change will be inevitable, given the advances and costs and economies of scale that will make a university-level education easier and less-expensive to achieve for similar qualities of education. Some things will be lost, of course. You can’t really do sports remotely, and watching a concert or Shakespeare play remotely, or learning medical procedures on a virtual corpse is not at all the same as being there and using the real thing. However, with enough time, and the Lord tarrying, technology may even conquer those hurdles. Planning for such dramatic future changes may not be immediately necessary, but I don’t think those schools that wish to survive another 50 years can afford to not think about such possible futures and what to do if they are faced with them.

[Susan R] I am pretty sure I read a poll not long ago that indicated about 25% of Americans still do not have home computers.

[dcbii]…we still have announcements and print a bulletin each week (which I no longer even bother to pick up), probably to cater to the people for whom technology still seems strange. I can’t believe we’ll still be doing any of that if we are still here in 30 or 40 years, but there will probably still be someone pining after having a printed copy in their hands! :)

[Susan R] Don’t feel bad, Bro. Karl- I love tech, and have many gadgets- but apparently I have a devastating affect on vacuum cleaners and dishwashers. I’ve never had one, regardless of make, model, or price, that lasted more than two years.