Will the war in Ukraine last for another year or more?
I personally think the U.S. is right to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. A number of presidential candidates don’t want to support Ukraine.
What is your best guess as to what will happen. I know, “It depends.” But our answer to most things depends upon variables. The question is not what you know will happen, but what do you think is most likely. Comments are welcome.
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.....is that the war ends when one side can no longer provision its front line troops and especially their artillery. I'm cautiously optimistic that the ATACMS systems provided to Ukraine will make it far more likely that Russia will be the side to buckle first. They will, I'm guessing, try to continue about half a year after they can no longer get provisions to the front.
Aspiring to be a stick in the mud.
So we have one person who knows his Clausewitz.
The real question is whether Russia is willing to risk a limited nuclear exchange. If not, they have real problems, if so, welcome to world war 3.
I looked up von Clausewitz to see what you meant. Yes, those three factors — the will of the people, the military, and the government all come into play.
"The Midrash Detective"
My take on Putin is that he wants to control Ukraine and make it his vassal state, which he cannot do if it's going to be a sea of glass that poisons his own country--and of course risks making his own country into a sea of glass. I hope I'm not wrong.
Aspiring to be a stick in the mud.
For Putin there are two questions, how tight is his grip on sanity, and if he can't win, will he choose to go out in a blaze of infamy? That IA, he might say if he can't have Ukraine, no one can.
As a note, never read Nietsche when wars start, I was in the Geneaology of Morals when the invasion began, had me in a foul mood for two weeks.
I've been praying saner, better minds will take Putin out for over a year for exactly that reason. And yes, I mean kill the guy. After a leader gets hundreds of thousands killed for no good reason, I start praying imprecatory prayers.
Will take your advice regarding Nietsche. There are a lot of great books I need to read.
Aspiring to be a stick in the mud.
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