Electoral Vote Contest

Also quite helpful: Real Clear Politics

http://www.270towin.com/

[I’m not eligible to win the books but I’m in it for the bragging rights!]

From my blog:

• Virginia, Florida and Ohio: I’m hopeful that all go to Romney. I think he needs all three
• Recent polling has Romney up in Pennsylvania.
• Nebraska and Maine split electoral votes by congressional district. I gave Obama all of Maine and 1 from Nebraska
• I think that Colorado and Nevada could go for Romney but I left in Obama column
• I’ve seen some polls that suggest that Wisconsin could go Romney but I left that in the Obama column as well
• Romney = 285 / Obama = 253
• My shared Electoral vote map from 270 to win: Peet’s prediction

Romney wins Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada

Obama wins Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin

Electoral college ends in a 269-269 tie. House of Representatives elects Romney

Call me an optimist, but I see current trends continuing, with Romney gaining momentum. Pretty much any state that had less than a 6% Obama lead using yesterday’s RCP numbers, I’ve got in the Romney column.

So I’ve got FL, PA, MI, WI and NV and OH all going to Romney. I have MN in the Obama column—they’re about as crazy as CA over there. :D

Romney-286

Obama-252

No one is predicting Romney will lose? I still think his victory is all but certain. I’m hopeful but cautious. As for numbers. I gotta do some more digging (I’ll wait till Nov 1 - but isn’t the election on Nov 6 this year anyway? ;)

[Bob Hayton]

No one is predicting Romney will lose? I still think his victory is all but certain. I’m hopeful but cautious. As for numbers. I gotta do some more digging (I’ll wait till Nov 1 - but isn’t the election on Nov 6 this year anyway? ;)

Yup! We decided to close the contest at end of day on 11/2 because polling tends to converge and be more accurate on the eve of the election.

…maybe more of a hypothesis: in this high-data age, people don’t pay attention to the Next Big Event until it’s pretty close. This is why it is taking so many so long to figure out what ought to have been obvious more than a year ago.

[Bob Hayton]

No one is predicting Romney will lose? I still think his victory is all but certain. I’m hopeful but cautious. As for numbers. I gotta do some more digging (I’ll wait till Nov 1 - but isn’t the election on Nov 6 this year anyway? ;)

If the election does end up tied and being decided in the House of Representatives, the Senate chooses the VP. If the Democrats retain control of that body (the voting is done by the new Congress, not the old one) they could and likely would choose Biden for VP. Not likely, but it would be interesting.

I was a political science major. The pressure is on. If I were to predict what I think will happen rather than what I hope: 284-254 Obama. I hope to revise soon.

Also, I thought it was really cute of the author of the post to put “prediction” in quotes: just to make sure we’re not talking about any prophecy going down on SI right? HAHAHA

There are professors of political science who believe Romeny not only has the edge but will win.

So much for that.

The momentum is toward Romney. The pivot is similar than the Regan/Carter pivot. You will not see as great a win as Reagan but it will not be questionable in the least. Romney in the + 300 electoral votes, likely mid 300’s. New Jersey and New York could be unanticipated shockers.

However, the demographic, unlike 1980, is a bit different. Cry Baby Boomers had come of age and were throwing off their adolescent political naivety in mass (at least on this occasion). Today the X-Gens and Millennial are not as “group similar”. They don’t move as a unit quite the same as the Cry Baby Boomers did.

I believe you will get a similar effect with them but not as large a percentage as the Cry Baby Boomers had in their pivot and coupled with Latino uncertainty based on the racialization/ethnicization of the presidential race which will contribute more to Obama than Romney than it did to Carter vs Reagan, the Romney momentum and win will be similar but not identical.

Electoral: Romney 342 Obama 196 but when I win please give my prize to the second place person.

Popular: Romney 52% Obama 47% (just like Mitt described)

The Monday debate could call for some revisions. Three general outcomes:

1. Not decisive one way or the other (pretty likely)

2. Increases Romney momentum (very possible)

3. Turns momentum in Obama’s direction (not impossible, but least likely scenario)

If we see #2, then in the ensuing week, some of the holdout “battleground” states begin to poll for Romney by election day and a few of the historically Democrat states move into “toss up” column (and a few go to Romney)

In the announcement, it might have been better to end that opening statement with “…and it’ll all be up the Electoral College and the courts.”

Many states could be close, and I’m sure both camps have lawyers lined up to challenge results that went against them, or to defend results in their favor.

Since Bush v. Gore, we’ve seen two more high-profile, drawn-out recounts, in Washington and Minnesota, both of which resulted in a win for the Democrat.

337 Romney 201 Obama

[Alex Guggenheim]

Electoral: Romney 342 Obama 196 but when I win please give my prize to the second place person.

Popular: Romney 52% Obama 47% (just like Mitt described)

p.s. Crybaby is 1 word!

[JohnBrian]

[Alex Guggenheim]

Electoral: Romney 342 Obama 196 but when I win please give my prize to the second place person.

Popular: Romney 52% Obama 47% (just like Mitt described)

p.s. Crybaby is 1 word!

Obama = 277

Romney = 261

[Alex Guggenheim]

[JohnBrian]

p.s. Crybaby is 1 word!

Thanks Brian. I plead literary license since, imo, Cry Baby Boomer, is visually more distinct.

And once again I agree with you.

To manipulate a quote by one of SC’s former senators, Fritz Hollings:

“there’s too much agreeing going on out there.”

Romney - 276 (wins Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada)

Obama - 262 (wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado)

Pray vigorously!!

I’m afraid that Obama and the democrats are going to hi-jack the election some way ie. starting riots, declaring martial law, rigging the voting machine. I wouldn’t put anything past him since he uses executive orders for whatever he wants to accomplish. There is no way he’s going to walk away gracefully and dignified.

As of right now, I’ve got Obama winning by 277-266 EC votes. I’m giving Romney VA and FL, but I’ve got Obama winning OH, MI, WI, and PA for an insurmountable lead. I’m also praying fervently that doesn’t come true.

Some of the punditry are spreading confusion about executive orders. Though it’s possible to overstep authority, these orders are completely legal when they address matters in any of the Departments under the executive branch—and when there isn’t specific legislation limiting them further.

So a President can’t, for example, use an executive order to change how elections operate in any particular state or in all of them. The states would simply ignore an order like that, I would think.

The real problem is that the executive department bureaucracy has grown so immense that the exec. branch now has enormous regulatory power via EO, if it chooses to use that. Shrinking that back down seriously is a really tough sell politically. Though Romney Ryan talk about doing this some, they haven’t suggested anything on the scale that’s really needed, IMO…. and it’s pretty hard to tell where it fits in their priorities (I’d guess more campaign promises are broken by “not getting around to it” than by “I never meant it in the first place”).

If I am right and Romney wins VA and FL, then he only has to pick off one of the Obama states I listed to win the election. So that’s good news.

Pretty decent debate for MR. Not fabulous but challengers always have some difficulty distinguishing themselves in foreign policy debates w/sitting presidents. Managed to look well informed, “presidential,” confident, calm… it’s about all he needed to do, though a slam dunk would have been nice.

A few things pointed out today by Steve Deace, a national radio talk show host (albeit still fairly small at this point) who started out on talk radio here in Des Moines. He lives here in Des Moines and is a born-again believer.

All this year I have been comparing this election to 2004. How similar is it? Barack Obama is at about 60% on Intrade two weeks before the election, which is exactly where George W. Bush was two weeks before the election in 2004. All time in American history incumbent presidents have won re-election about 70% of the time. Since 1896, the only 4 incumbent presidents to lose either faced a primary or a Great Depression.

Two things:

1. I would want to know how the momentum shift in recent weeks compares to 2004. I don’t remember. Was John Kerry gaining ground on Bush in the last month before the election? If not, it might not be an exact comparison because Romney has been gaining ground on Obama in the last month.
2. Obama didn’t face a primary, but the current economy draws some comparisons to a Great Depression scenario in that one of the questions people have is how much responsibility he bears for the bad economy.

I do understand that executive orders are legal and not to override powers given to other branches of our government. But Obama uses them for whatever he wants including making appointments that he can’t push through Congress. Therefore, I don’t trust him. States have tried to control the illegals situation, the voter identification measures, and healthcare reform overrides and the courts at best have in some cases let them go through restricted in other cases the states basically had their hands tied. What’s to stop him from doing something to the election?

Elections are operated by state bureaucracies under state laws. Though it’s difficult, it’s possible to illegally interfere with them through surrogates and old fashioned things like bribery and organized voter fraud. But it’s very difficult to do this on a large enough scale to win a national election. It’s very difficult to do at all other than at an isolated poll or two.

We had a push for voter ID in Wisconsin that has, so far, failed. But it had nothing to do with Obama. There are just a fair number of people in high places (especially courts) who believe getting an ID is undue hardship for voters… and some argue that the hardship is disproportionately heavy on minorities. (I don’t buy that, of course)

I trust Obama to do what he believes in. To me, that’s the problem: a political philosophy much at odds with how human beings and the world work.

[Greg] Two things:

1. I would want to know how the momentum shift in recent weeks compares to 2004. I don’t remember. Was John Kerry gaining ground on Bush in the last month before the election? If not, it might not be an exact comparison because Romney has been gaining ground on Obama in the last month.
2. Obama didn’t face a primary, but the current economy draws some comparisons to a Great Depression scenario in that one of the questions people have is how much responsibility he bears for the bad economy.

It’s interesting the different ways the “No ______ has ever _______” analyses work out. For example, nobody with a Nov. unemployment rate above 7.2 has ever been reelected. But you can plug in criteria that produce contradictory conclusions. “No President who’s last name starts with O. has ever failed to be reelected.” :D

Tried to find some data on Kerry in ‘04 in weeks before the vote. No hits yet. What I vaguely recall is that his numbers were pretty flat at that point. But I could be wrong.

Edit: Greg, check this out

Looks like Kerry trended very slightly higher through late Sep and early Oct then peaked on Oct 22 in Real Clear averages…. but other than a brief bounce in August, he was never ahead.

I’m heartened to see the late breaking voters going Romney. As a poli-sci guy, here’s the thing with poll watching: it’s always an accurate measure of how people think now, not necessarily how they’ll think on election day. Polls become far more accurate in the final 2-3 days of the campaign.

I’m hopeful that Romney can pull it out, but he needs things to go perfect in a lot of states he’s slightly ahead in (FL, VA, CO) plus he’s GOT to win Ohio. Here’s my RCP map if everything goes well for Romney.

If Romney does win, it will be an amazing turn of events.

Looks the RCP “Create Your Own Map” tool is cookie based or something…. your link appears to be showing the current averages or something… with 18 toss up states.

BTW, there are a couple of scenarios where he can win it without Ohio. Long shots but the probably is more than zero.

http://theweek.com/article/index/234804/how-mitt-romney-can-win-without…

http://washingtonexaminer.com/yes-romney-can-win-without-ohio/article/2…

Aaron, I think Shaynus left Ohio undecided in his RCP scenario.

I know there are a few other scenarios, but it pretty much all comes down to Ohio.

Yeah, I misread the map … 18 toss up electoral votes, not 18 toss up states.

If he manages to get OH and FL (currently leads there) and all the historically “red” states, he only needs two of the current toss-up states to win. Either VA (currently a tie in the polls) or CO (currently whisker-thin lead) would do. O’s lead in OH is now down to 1.9 and seems to be shrinking in WI and a few others. Hard to tell what’s happening in MI.

Would be nice if RR could find a way to clearly and memorably explain to MI and the nation why bankruptcy would have been so much better for the auto industry than the bail-out approach. (What’s tricky with that is to show how it would have been better without predicting that the bailout will fail—which it eventually will. It’s just that this would be a bad time to tell MI “The bailout approach is mostly like only a temporary fix”)

What RR needs now is a dramatic error in the OB administration/campaign to seal the deal. There is still some chance Benghazi will do it, depending on what un-ignorable info comes to light.

That’s the key reason why I think car country (including Michigan and Ohio) will be tough for Romney. Obama is in the tank for the car industry. Romney has to have nearly every close race go his way, while Obama needs a handful. I also look at individual Senate races in these key states and see Democrats up in nearly all of them. This could mean reverse coat-tails for Obama.

Aaron, could you do an RCP map and link it? I’m not sure the math works out without Ohio or Wisconsin. Do your map, then hit the email button and copy the link.

An electoral tie simulation

(this is not my prediction … but it would be interesting)

And then what would happen:

[Shaynus] Aaron, could you do an RCP map and link it? I’m not sure the math works out without Ohio or Wisconsin. Do your map, then hit the email button and copy the link.

I’ll give it a whirl

… Sure enough. Had some errors. For some reason I had Delaware and Maryland in the Romney column. Corrected, if he gets OH and FL and all the historically red states, he’s still shy a few (I think I also might have have a couple not “historically red” but currently leaning Romney)

So if he gets OH and FL, he also needs either VA or CO and IA.

In this map, I gave CO to ObamaBiden but OH, FL, VA and IA to RomneyRyan. RR is more likely to get CO and lose IA… though I still think they get both in the end.

(This is not a new prediction, though. I need to revise my original to get DE, MD and maybe another out of RR column)

http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/25/14700653-recount-tie-ho…

Interesting (but I think unlikely)

Number 1: Dan Phillips: “The World-Tilting Gospel: Embracing a Biblical Worldview and Hanging on Tight”

http://www.amazon.com/World-Tilting-Gospel-Embracing-Biblical-Worldview…

Adam Blumer’s: “Fatal Illusions: A Novel”

http://www.amazon.com/Fatal-Illusions-Novel-Adam-Blumer/dp/0825420989

You don’t have to have a complex type of answer (like Aaron’s above) or have a click through to a map

Your entry can be as simple as: Obama will win: 285-253.

Whoever is closest will receive both prizes!

S/I Mods and Admins are not eligible to win the prizes.

My new guess is Romney wins 348 to 190. I think he will actually take MN this time. I lived in MN most of my life and Romney is just the kind of guy MN’s would vote for as governor. I just saw the Star Tribune poll and Obama was leading in MN but it had a +13 Dem sample. I also gave one of the Maine split votes to Romney.

My hopeful guess is 295-243 in favor of Romney

split vote 5-1 in NE/ 3-1 in ME

WI, IA, OH, CO, VA, FL, NC, NH to Romney riding the momentum to the White House.

I’m starting to think there could be a surprising conclusion to a race that has been declared a dead heat. The AZ Republic, as liberal as most any media outlet, endorsed Romney this week. It was shocking, to say the least.

Hugh Hewitt cited statistics from at article at Polling Reports that gives hope to us Romney supporters. Rich Lowry on Hugh’s show mentioned a political observer named Josh Jordan, who has been watching and analyzing Ohio closely, and says that Romney has a good chance there.

I still say if election were held today Obama would win. Momentum is definitely in Romney’s favor but he needs to continue the upward trajectory.

Likely if the vote was today he would. I think Ohio is not there yet, nor is WI, though I suspect both will be by E day.

… but there’s still time for a reversal in O’s favor. (I’m still waiting for the other shoe to drop on the Benghazi business, though. There’s much that doesn’t seem to add up in that story.)

Hey Shayne McAllister: Your prediction on 10/23 left Ohio blank. Please add a new post with that clarified.