Electoral Vote Contest

In just over two weeks all the campaigning, debating, advertising and analyzing will be over and it’ll all be up the Electoral College.

As a little election-season fun, see if you can guess what the Electoral College result will be.

If you need a little help figuring out a good guess, you might find these helpful: The Electoral College, and 2012 Presidential Election. Post your best guess in the comment section.

Prize: the winner will receive a copy of two books:

The World-Tilting Gospel: Embracing a Biblical Worldview and Hanging on Tight and Fatal Illusions: A Novel

Whoever is closest to the actual electoral vote is the winner. Ties will be drawn from a hat (or similar randomizing tool). The contest is open to all registered SI users (register here), but the Publisher and Moderators, etc. are not eligible for the prize (only bragging rights). The deadline for your “prediction” is midnight, Friday, November 2.

(But don’t wait until Nov. 2, to post your guess. You can always revise it until the deadline.)

19825 reads

There are 119 Comments

Jim's picture

[I’m not eligible to win the books but I’m in it for the bragging rights!]

From my blog:

  • Virginia, Florida and Ohio: I’m hopeful that all go to Romney. I think he needs all three
  • Recent polling has Romney up in Pennsylvania.
  • Nebraska and Maine split electoral votes by congressional district. I gave Obama all of Maine and 1 from Nebraska
  • I think that Colorado and Nevada could go for Romney but I left in Obama column
  • I’ve seen some polls that suggest that Wisconsin could go Romney but I left that in the Obama column as well
  • Romney = 285 / Obama = 253
  • My shared Electoral vote map from 270 to win: Peet’s prediction
Barry L.'s picture

Romney wins Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada

Obama wins Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin

Electoral college ends in a 269-269 tie. House of Representatives elects Romney

Aaron Blumer's picture

EditorAdmin

Call me an optimist, but I see current trends continuing, with Romney gaining momentum. Pretty much any state that had less than a 6% Obama lead using yesterday’s RCP numbers, I’ve got in the Romney column.

So I’ve got FL, PA, MI, WI and NV and OH all going to Romney. I have MN in the Obama column—they’re about as crazy as CA over there. :D

Sate Ob Ro
AL   9
AK   3
AZ   11
AR   6
CA 55  
CO   9
CT 7  
DE   3
DC 3  
FL   29
GA   16
HI 4  
ID   4
IL 20  
IN   11
IA   6
KS   6
KY   8
LA   8
ME 4  
MD   10
MA 11  
MI   16
MN 10  
MS   6
MO   10
MT   3
NE   5
NV   6
NH   4
NJ 14  
NM 5  
NY 29  
NC   15
ND   3
OH   18
OK   7
OR 7  
PA   20
RI 4  
SC   9
SD   3
TN   11
TX   38
UT   6
VT 3  
VA   13
WA 12  
WV   5
WI   10
WY   3
  188 350

 

juitdeflesch's picture

Romney-286

Obama-252

John Uit de Flesch

Bob Hayton's picture

No one is predicting Romney will lose? I still think his victory is all but certain. I'm hopeful but cautious.  As for numbers. I gotta do some more digging (I'll wait till Nov 1 - but isn't the election on Nov 6 this year anyway? Wink

Striving for the unity of the faith, for the glory of God ~ Eph. 4:3, 13; Rom. 15:5-7 I blog at Fundamentally Reformed. Follow me on Twitter.

Jim's picture

Bob Hayton wrote:

No one is predicting Romney will lose? I still think his victory is all but certain. I'm hopeful but cautious.  As for numbers. I gotta do some more digging (I'll wait till Nov 1 - but isn't the election on Nov 6 this year anyway? Wink

Yup! We decided to close the contest at end of day on 11/2 because polling tends to converge and be more accurate on the eve of the election.

 

Aaron Blumer's picture

EditorAdmin

...maybe more of a hypothesis: in this high-data age, people don't pay attention to the Next Big Event until it's pretty close. This is why it is taking so many so long to figure out what ought to have been obvious more than a year ago.

dcbii's picture

EditorModerator

Bob Hayton wrote:

No one is predicting Romney will lose? I still think his victory is all but certain. I'm hopeful but cautious.  As for numbers. I gotta do some more digging (I'll wait till Nov 1 - but isn't the election on Nov 6 this year anyway? Wink


Well, I'm sure not predicting a Romney win. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm just not seeing a big groundswell of support for Romney. I think it's too close to call, though I think it's too much to hope for an electoral college tie!

Dave Barnhart

Robert Byers's picture

If the election does end up tied and being decided in the House of Representatives, the Senate chooses the VP.  If the Democrats retain control of that body (the voting is done by the new Congress, not the old one) they could and likely would choose Biden for VP.  Not likely, but it would be interesting.

Shaynus's picture

I was a political science major. The pressure is on. If I were to predict what I think will happen rather than what I hope: 284-254 Obama. I hope to revise soon.

 

Also, I thought it was really cute of the author of the post to put "prediction" in quotes: just to make sure we're not talking about any prophecy going down on SI right? HAHAHA

Alex Guggenheim's picture

There are professors of political science who believe Romeny not only has the edge but will win.

So much for that.

The momentum is toward Romney. The pivot is similar than the Regan/Carter pivot. You will not see as great a win as Reagan but it will not be questionable in the least. Romney in the + 300 electoral votes, likely mid 300's. New Jersey and New York could be unanticipated shockers.

However, the demographic, unlike 1980, is a bit different. Cry Baby Boomers had come of age and were throwing off their adolescent political naivety in mass (at least on this occasion). Today the X-Gens and Millennial are not as "group similar". They don't move as a unit quite the same as the Cry Baby Boomers did.

I believe you will get a similar effect with them but not as large a percentage as the Cry Baby Boomers had in their pivot and coupled with Latino uncertainty based on the racialization/ethnicization of the presidential race which will contribute more to Obama than Romney than it did to Carter vs Reagan, the Romney momentum and win will be similar but not identical.

Aaron Blumer's picture

EditorAdmin

The Monday debate could call for some revisions. Three general outcomes:

1. Not decisive one way or the other (pretty likely)

2. Increases Romney momentum (very possible)

3. Turns momentum in Obama's direction (not impossible, but least likely scenario)

If we see #2, then in the ensuing week, some of the holdout "battleground" states begin to poll for Romney by election day and a few of the historically Democrat states move into "toss up" column (and a few go to Romney)

Rick Franklin's picture

In the announcement, it might have been better to end that opening statement with ". . .and it’ll all be up the Electoral College and the courts."

Many states could be close, and I'm sure both camps have lawyers lined up to challenge results that went against them, or to defend results in their favor.

Since Bush v. Gore, we've seen two more high-profile, drawn-out recounts, in Washington and Minnesota, both of which resulted in a win for the Democrat.

 

Rick Franklin Gresham, Oregon Romans 8:38-39

JohnBrian's picture

Alex Guggenheim wrote:

Electoral: Romney 342 Obama 196 but when I win please give my prize to the second place person.

Popular: Romney 52% Obama 47% (just like Mitt described)

 

p.s. Crybaby is 1 word!

CanJAmerican - my blog
CanJAmerican - my twitter
whitejumaycan - my youtube

Alex Guggenheim's picture

JohnBrian wrote:

Alex Guggenheim wrote:

Electoral: Romney 342 Obama 196 but when I win please give my prize to the second place person.

Popular: Romney 52% Obama 47% (just like Mitt described)

 

p.s. Crybaby is 1 word!

Thanks Brian. I plead literary license since, imo, Cry Baby Boomer, is visually more distinct.

JohnBrian's picture

Alex Guggenheim wrote:

JohnBrian wrote:

p.s. Crybaby is 1 word!

Thanks Brian. I plead literary license since, imo, Cry Baby Boomer, is visually more distinct.

And once again I agree with you.

To manipulate a quote by one of SC's former senators, Fritz Hollings:

"there's too much agreeing going on out there."

CanJAmerican - my blog
CanJAmerican - my twitter
whitejumaycan - my youtube

Brian Keith's picture

Romney - 276 (wins Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada)

Obama - 262 (wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado)

 

Pray vigorously!!

 

 

Michelle Shuman's picture

I'm afraid that Obama and the democrats are going to hi-jack the election some way ie. starting riots, declaring martial law, rigging the voting machine.  I wouldn't put anything past him since he uses executive orders for whatever he wants to accomplish.  There is no way he's going to walk away gracefully and dignified. 

Michelle Shuman

Jay's picture

As of right now, I've got Obama winning by 277-266 EC votes.  I'm giving Romney VA and FL, but I've got Obama winning OH, MI, WI, and PA for an insurmountable lead.  I'm also praying fervently that doesn't come true. 

"Our task today is to tell people — who no longer know what sin is...no longer see themselves as sinners, and no longer have room for these categories — that Christ died for sins of which they do not think they’re guilty." - David Wells

Aaron Blumer's picture

EditorAdmin

Some of the punditry are spreading confusion about executive orders. Though it's possible to overstep authority, these orders are completely legal when they address matters in any of the Departments under the executive branch--and when there isn't specific legislation limiting them further.

So a President can't, for example, use an executive order to change how elections operate in any particular state or in all of them. The states would simply ignore an order like that, I would think.

The real problem is that the executive department bureaucracy has grown so immense that the exec. branch now has enormous regulatory power via EO, if it chooses to use that. Shrinking that back down seriously is a really tough sell politically. Though Romney Ryan talk about doing this some, they haven't suggested anything on the scale that's really needed, IMO.... and it's pretty hard to tell where it fits in their priorities (I'd guess more campaign promises are broken by "not getting around to it" than by "I never meant it in the first place").

Jay's picture

If I am right and Romney wins VA and FL, then he only has to pick off one of the Obama states I listed to win the election.  So that's good news.

"Our task today is to tell people — who no longer know what sin is...no longer see themselves as sinners, and no longer have room for these categories — that Christ died for sins of which they do not think they’re guilty." - David Wells

Aaron Blumer's picture

EditorAdmin

Pretty decent debate for MR. Not fabulous but challengers always have some difficulty distinguishing themselves in foreign policy debates w/sitting presidents. Managed to look well informed, "presidential," confident, calm... it's about all he needed to do, though a slam dunk would have been nice.

Greg Long's picture

A few things pointed out today by Steve Deace, a national radio talk show host (albeit still fairly small at this point) who started out on talk radio here in Des Moines. He lives here in Des Moines and is a born-again believer.

All this year I have been comparing this election to 2004. How similar is it? Barack Obama is at about 60% on Intrade two weeks before the election, which is exactly where George W. Bush was two weeks before the election in 2004. All time in American history incumbent presidents have won re-election about 70% of the time. Since 1896, the only 4 incumbent presidents to lose either faced a primary or a Great Depression.

Two things:

  1. I would want to know how the momentum shift in recent weeks compares to 2004. I don't remember. Was John Kerry gaining ground on Bush in the last month before the election? If not, it might not be an exact comparison because Romney has been gaining ground on Obama in the last month.
  2. Obama didn't face a primary, but the current economy draws some comparisons to a Great Depression scenario in that one of the questions people have is how much responsibility he bears for the bad economy.

-------
Greg Long, Ed.D. (SBTS)

Pastor of Adult Ministries
Grace Church, Des Moines, IA

Adjunct Instructor
School of Divinity
Liberty University

Michelle Shuman's picture

I do understand that executive orders are legal and not to override powers given to other branches of our government.  But Obama uses them for whatever he wants including making appointments that he can't push through Congress.  Therefore, I don't trust him.  States have tried to control the illegals situation, the voter identification measures, and healthcare reform overrides and the courts at best have in some cases let them go through restricted in other cases the states basically had their hands tied.  What's to stop him from doing something to the election?

Michelle Shuman

Pages

Help keep SI’s server humming. A few bucks makes a difference.