Electoral Vote Contest
In just over two weeks all the campaigning, debating, advertising and analyzing will be over and it’ll all be up the Electoral College.
As a little election-season fun, see if you can guess what the Electoral College result will be.
If you need a little help figuring out a good guess, you might find these helpful: The Electoral College, and 2012 Presidential Election. Post your best guess in the comment section.
Prize: the winner will receive a copy of two books:
The World-Tilting Gospel: Embracing a Biblical Worldview and Hanging on Tight and Fatal Illusions: A Novel
Whoever is closest to the actual electoral vote is the winner. Ties will be drawn from a hat (or similar randomizing tool). The contest is open to all registered SI users (register here), but the Publisher and Moderators, etc. are not eligible for the prize (only bragging rights). The deadline for your “prediction” is midnight, Friday, November 2.
(But don’t wait until Nov. 2, to post your guess. You can always revise it until the deadline.)
- 28 views
I hope I’m wrong but I don’t see Romney getting over the top.
Obama - 271
Romney - 267
Jared
Jared, I tend to agree with you. Romney’s momentum has definitely leveled off.
Romney’s only hope is if the polls are consistently oversampling Democrats. Many polls are based on 2008 voter models and some pundits think Democratic turnout will be lower than 2008.
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Greg Long, Ed.D. (SBTS)
Pastor of Adult Ministries
Grace Church, Des Moines, IA
Adjunct Instructor
School of Divinity
Liberty University
Just heard an interesting analysis of the Ohio race.
Per this pundit, in 2008, 47% of Ohio voted for McCain. He reasons like this:
- Who are that 47% going to vote for this time?
- How likely is it that Romney will gain 3% among the rest?
To him the answer is obvious. He’s convinced Romney will actually win more than 52% in OH.
Of course, that raises the question why are so many polls not showing that? He says certain demographics are being undersampled. Rasmussen does have Romney up by 2 in OH.
Supposedly there is also a history of pollsters getting OH wrong. I don’t know if that’s the case or not (or in what direction they are usually wrong).
Views expressed are always my own and not my employer's, my church's, my family's, my neighbors', or my pets'. The house plants have authorized me to speak for them, however, and they always agree with me.
Romney 270
Obama 268
Obama wins Ohio and Colorado, Romney pulls out a win in Wisconsin and Florida.
Therefore be careful how you walk, not as unwise men but as wise, making the most of your time, because the days are evil. So then do not be foolish, but understand what the will of the Lord is. ~ Eph. 5:15-17
Ok, Aaron. We’re close enough to election day now, I think you should just call it and announce a winner.
Why is it that my voice always seems to be loudest when I am saying the dumbest things?
My final guess
295 - Romney
243 - Obama
Romney sweeps the swing states + WI, with the exception of Nevada.
I think the national polling in Romney’s favor + the state polling being tilted toward more of a 2008 voter turnout / voter party split + the attitudes of the different campaigns seem to indicate that Obama’s on the way out. I may easily be wrong, but I’m hopeful that we’ll see change.
Striving for the unity of the faith, for the glory of God ~ Eph. 4:3, 13; Rom. 15:5-7 I blog at Fundamentally Reformed. Follow me on Twitter.
Romney -275
Obama - 263
Romney wins FL, NC, VA, CO and OH
Obama holds on to NV, IA, WI, PA, NH
Almost giving Romney Iowa (which would make the split 281-257), but for now, I’ll leave it like it is.
Thanks all for your participation. Others … please submit your prediction by end of day Friday 11/2
The prize patrol van may visit your home with 2 fantastic books! (or it could be the UPS truck delivering them in an Amazon box!)
Romney 289
Obama 249
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Greg Long, Ed.D. (SBTS)
Pastor of Adult Ministries
Grace Church, Des Moines, IA
Adjunct Instructor
School of Divinity
Liberty University
Romney 272
Obama 266
But frankly, I may be a little overly optimistic. I also believe that it is highly likely that Romney could win the popular vote, while Obama wins the electoral vote.
The winner will be the campaign and party that does the better job of actually getting its self-described “supporters” to the polls.
I also think that Romney spoke the truth when he inarticulately tried to say that 47% of the population would not vote for him under any circumstances.
Dan Burrell Cornelius, NC Visit my Blog "Whirled Views" @ www.danburrell.com
Romney 291, Obama 247
Meat! meat! meat!
Views expressed are always my own and not my employer's, my church's, my family's, my neighbors', or my pets'. The house plants have authorized me to speak for them, however, and they always agree with me.
REPUBLICANS HAVE WON EVERY NOVEMBER 6TH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SINCE 1860
Starting in 1792, states had a range of dates on which to conduct presidential elections, but in 1845 Congress standardized the date so it would always be the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Since then presidential elections have been held on dates ranging from November 2nd to November 8th with each date coming up about six times in a fairly regular pattern. The date November 6th has always been a good one for Republicans:
1860 - Abraham Lincoln over Stephen Douglas
1888 - Benjamin Harrison over incumbent Grover Cleveland
1900 - William McKinley over William Jennings Bryan
1928 - Herbert Hoover over Al Smith
1956 - Dwight Eisenhower over Adlai Stevenson
1984 - Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale
Republicans Have Won Every November 6th Presidential Election Since 1860
Why is it that my voice always seems to be loudest when I am saying the dumbest things?
Romney 285 (Including FL, NC, VA, CO, IA, NH and OH)
Obama 253
This is identical to Jim’s prediction.
I’m Rick Franklin and I approved this message.
Rick Franklin Gresham, Oregon Romans 8:38-39
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