Electoral Vote Contest

Also quite helpful: Real Clear Politics

[I’m not eligible to win the books but I’m in it for the bragging rights!]

From my blog:

• Virginia, Florida and Ohio: I’m hopeful that all go to Romney. I think he needs all three
• Recent polling has Romney up in Pennsylvania.
• Nebraska and Maine split electoral votes by congressional district. I gave Obama all of Maine and 1 from Nebraska
• I think that Colorado and Nevada could go for Romney but I left in Obama column
• I’ve seen some polls that suggest that Wisconsin could go Romney but I left that in the Obama column as well
• Romney = 285 / Obama = 253
• My shared Electoral vote map from 270 to win: Peet’s prediction

Call me an optimist, but I see current trends continuing, with Romney gaining momentum. Pretty much any state that had less than a 6% Obama lead using yesterday’s RCP numbers, I’ve got in the Romney column.

So I’ve got FL, PA, MI, WI and NV and OH all going to Romney. I have MN in the Obama column—they’re about as crazy as CA over there. :D

No one is predicting Romney will lose? I still think his victory is all but certain. I'm hopeful but cautious.  As for numbers. I gotta do some more digging (I'll wait till Nov 1 - but isn't the election on Nov 6 this year anyway?

...maybe more of a hypothesis: in this high-data age, people don't pay attention to the Next Big Event until it's pretty close. This is why it is taking so many so long to figure out what ought to have been obvious more than a year ago.

If the election does end up tied and being decided in the House of Representatives, the Senate chooses the VP.  If the Democrats retain control of that body (the voting is done by the new Congress, not the old one) they could and likely would choose Biden for VP.  Not likely, but it would be interesting.

There are professors of political science who believe Romeny not only has the edge but will win.

So much for that.

The momentum is toward Romney. The pivot is similar than the Regan/Carter pivot. You will not see as great a win as Reagan but it will not be questionable in the least. Romney in the + 300 electoral votes, likely mid 300's. New Jersey and New York could be unanticipated shockers.

However, the demographic, unlike 1980, is a bit different. Cry Baby Boomers had come of age and were throwing off their adolescent political naivety in mass (at least on this occasion). Today the X-Gens and Millennial are not as "group similar". They don't move as a unit quite the same as the Cry Baby Boomers did.

I believe you will get a similar effect with them but not as large a percentage as the Cry Baby Boomers had in their pivot and coupled with Latino uncertainty based on the racialization/ethnicization of the presidential race which will contribute more to Obama than Romney than it did to Carter vs Reagan, the Romney momentum and win will be similar but not identical.

The Monday debate could call for some revisions. Three general outcomes:

1. Not decisive one way or the other (pretty likely)

2. Increases Romney momentum (very possible)

3. Turns momentum in Obama's direction (not impossible, but least likely scenario)

If we see #2, then in the ensuing week, some of the holdout "battleground" states begin to poll for Romney by election day and a few of the historically Democrat states move into "toss up" column (and a few go to Romney)

In the announcement, it might have been better to end that opening statement with ". . .and it’ll all be up the Electoral College and the courts."

Many states could be close, and I'm sure both camps have lawyers lined up to challenge results that went against them, or to defend results in their favor.

Since Bush v. Gore, we've seen two more high-profile, drawn-out recounts, in Washington and Minnesota, both of which resulted in a win for the Democrat.

p.s. Crybaby is 1 word!

Obama = 277

Romney = 261 

Romney - 276 (wins Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada)

Obama - 262 (wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado)

Pray vigorously!!

As of right now, I've got Obama winning by 277-266 EC votes.  I'm giving Romney VA and FL, but I've got Obama winning OH, MI, WI, and PA for an insurmountable lead.  I'm also praying fervently that doesn't come true. 

If I am right and Romney wins VA and FL, then he only has to pick off one of the Obama states I listed to win the election.  So that's good news.

A few things pointed out today by Steve Deace, a national radio talk show host (albeit still fairly small at this point) who started out on talk radio here in Des Moines. He lives here in Des Moines and is a born-again believer.

All this year I have been comparing this election to 2004. How similar is it? Barack Obama is at about 60% on Intrade two weeks before the election, which is exactly where George W. Bush was two weeks before the election in 2004. All time in American history incumbent presidents have won re-election about 70% of the time. Since 1896, the only 4 incumbent presidents to lose either faced a primary or a Great Depression.

Two things:

1. I would want to know how the momentum shift in recent weeks compares to 2004. I don't remember. Was John Kerry gaining ground on Bush in the last month before the election? If not, it might not be an exact comparison because Romney has been gaining ground on Obama in the last month.
2. Obama didn't face a primary, but the current economy draws some comparisons to a Great Depression scenario in that one of the questions people have is how much responsibility he bears for the bad economy.

Elections are operated by state bureaucracies under state laws. Though it's difficult, it's possible to illegally interfere with them through surrogates and old fashioned things like bribery and organized voter fraud. But it's very difficult to do this on a large enough scale to win a national election. It's very difficult to do at all other than at an isolated poll or two.

We had a push for voter ID in Wisconsin that has, so far, failed. But it had nothing to do with Obama. There are just a fair number of people in high places (especially courts) who believe getting an ID is undue hardship for voters... and some argue that the hardship is disproportionately heavy on minorities. (I don't buy that, of course)

I trust Obama to do what he believes in. To me, that's the problem: a political philosophy much at odds with how human beings and the world work.

It's interesting the different ways the "No ______ has ever _______" analyses work out. For example, nobody with a Nov. unemployment rate above 7.2 has ever been reelected. But you can plug in criteria that produce contradictory conclusions. "No President who's last name starts with O. has ever failed to be reelected."

Tried to find some data on Kerry in '04 in weeks before the vote. No hits yet. What I vaguely recall is that his numbers were pretty flat at that point. But I could be wrong.

Edit: Greg, check this out

Looks like Kerry trended very slightly higher through late Sep and early Oct then peaked on Oct 22 in Real Clear averages.... but other than a brief bounce in August, he was never ahead.

Looks the RCP "Create Your Own Map" tool is cookie based or something.... your link appears to be showing the current averages or something... with 18 toss up states.

BTW, there are a couple of scenarios where he can win it without Ohio. Long shots but the probably is more than zero. 

http://theweek.com/article/index/234804/how-mitt-romney-can-win-without-...

http://washingtonexaminer.com/yes-romney-can-win-without-ohio/article/25...

I know there are a few other scenarios, but it pretty much all comes down to Ohio.

That's the key reason why I think car country (including Michigan and Ohio) will be tough for Romney. Obama is in the tank for the car industry. Romney has to have nearly every close race go his way, while Obama needs a handful. I also look at individual Senate races in these key states and see Democrats up in nearly all of them. This could mean reverse coat-tails for Obama.

Aaron, could you do an RCP map and link it? I'm not sure the math works out without Ohio or Wisconsin. Do your map, then hit the email button and copy the link.

I'll give it a whirl

... Sure enough. Had some errors. For some reason I had Delaware and Maryland in the Romney column. Corrected, if he gets OH and FL and all the historically red states, he's still shy a few (I think I also might have have a couple not "historically red" but currently leaning Romney)

So if he gets OH and FL, he also needs either VA or CO and IA. 

In this map, I gave CO to ObamaBiden but OH, FL, VA and IA to RomneyRyan. RR is more likely to get CO and lose IA... though I still think they get both in the end.

(This is not a new prediction, though. I need to revise my original to get DE, MD and maybe another out of RR column)

Number 1: Dan Phillips: "The World-Tilting Gospel: Embracing a Biblical Worldview and Hanging on Tight"

http://www.amazon.com/World-Tilting-Gospel-Embracing-Biblical-Worldview/...

You don't have to have a complex type of answer (like Aaron's above) or have a click through to a map 

Your entry can be as simple as: Obama will win: 285-253. 

Whoever is closest will receive both prizes! 

S/I Mods and Admins are not eligible to win the prizes. 

My hopeful guess is 295-243 in favor of Romney

split vote 5-1 in NE/ 3-1 in ME

WI, IA, OH, CO, VA, FL, NC, NH to Romney riding the momentum to the White House.

Hugh Hewitt cited statistics from at article at Polling Reports that gives hope to us Romney supporters.  Rich Lowry on Hugh's show mentioned a political observer named Josh Jordan, who has been watching and analyzing Ohio closely, and says that Romney has a good chance there.

Likely if the vote was today he would. I think Ohio is not there yet, nor is WI, though I suspect both will be by E day.

... but there's still time for a reversal in O's favor. (I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop on the Benghazi business, though. There's much that doesn't seem to add up in that story.)

Spreadsheet thus far

My revised electoral score. Fixed an error or two and also moved PA back to Obama. Michigan might still go Romney. I still think OH will. I think FL will hold.

So...

Obama loses 225 to 313

my previous prediction stands. that other map was for argumentation purposes only. 

Here is an interesting article that shows how easy it is for the polls to get the results they want just by skewing the polling sample to the party of their choice. 

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/31/final-cbsnytq-polls-in-oh-fl-va-sh...

Here is another one:

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/31/ppp-obama-leads-by-5-in-ohio-5045/

Romney 290

Obama 248

Sandy 0

I hope I'm wrong but I don't see Romney getting over the top.

Obama - 271

Romney - 267

Jared

Just heard an interesting analysis of the Ohio race.

Per this pundit, in 2008, 47% of Ohio voted for McCain. He reasons like this: 

• Who are that 47% going to vote for this time?
• How likely is it that Romney will gain 3% among the rest?

To him the answer is obvious. He's convinced Romney will actually win more than 52% in OH.

Of course, that raises the question why are so many polls not showing that? He says certain demographics are being undersampled.  Rasmussen does have Romney up by 2 in OH.

Supposedly there is also a history of pollsters getting OH wrong. I don't know if that's the case or not (or in what direction they are usually wrong).

Ok, Aaron. We're close enough to election day now, I think you should just call it and announce a winner. 

Romney -275

Obama - 263

Romney wins FL, NC, VA, CO and OH

Obama holds on to NV, IA, WI, PA, NH

Almost giving Romney Iowa (which would make the split 281-257), but for now, I'll leave it like it is.

Romney 289

Obama 249

Romney 291, Obama 247

Meat! meat! meat!

Romney 285  (Including FL, NC, VA, CO, IA, NH and OH)

Obama 253

This is identical to Jim's prediction.

I'm Rick Franklin and I approved this message.

Deadline is midnight! Thanks

Romney 309 (w/FL, NC, VA, PA, NH, OH, WI, CO

Obama 229

at least in ohio, the voting machine problems could be the result of the republican secretary of state applying last-minute uncertified updates http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2012/4768

fortunately, so far, all the people who say the machine wasn't correctly accepting their selection have been able to correct the situation before finalizing their vote.

I hope either you or I win!

If this holds ... Obama wins

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/swing-state-tracker?ref=politics

Final on predictions (Excel spreadsheet)

If anything looks out of line PM me

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020370760457809096226720089...

It's generally thought that the president burned any remaining bridge to [the evangelicals] with the gay-marriage decision that Joe Biden made for him. But it's more complicated than one issue.

Four years ago, evangelicals mainly supported former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. When John McCain became the nominee, he and the evangelical community never connected, and many evangelicals stayed home. This time they are in motion.

The president of Ohio Christian University, Mark A. Smith, says, "The intensity of voters in the faith community is as high as I've seen it in the last 12 years." The driver of that intensity is religious liberty. "We took a direct hit with the Affordable Care Act," he says. Evangelicals watched the Obama administration's big public fight with Catholic hospitals and charities. What they concluded is that the health-care law was a direct threat to their own private outreach programs.